01 Dossier brief

China advanced-computing semiconductor export-control exposure

High China-linked exposure score (73/100).

Exposure to China-linked advanced-computing semiconductor export controls, entity screening, foundry and packaging due diligence, semiconductor manufacturing equipment restrictions, software and HBM controls, and regulatory chokepoints.

CLX 73/100HighConfidence 66%

CLX score

73/100

Confidence

66%

Completeness

86%

Evidence cited

Quick facts

Country

China

Sector

Semiconductors

CLX band

High

Profile

CLX-SEMICONDUCTOR-EXPORT-CONTROLS-1.0

Key source dates

2024-05-14 · 2024-12-02 · 2024-12-06 · 2025-01-15 · 2025-01-31 · 2025-05-13 · 2025-06-27 · 2025-06-30 · 2025-08-29 · 2026-01-13

How to read CLX

Read the score as a China-linked exposure signal, then use domains, confidence, source dates, and evidence to decide where follow-up diligence belongs.

Boundaries

- This dossier maps China-linked export-control and compliance exposure; it is not legal advice or a market forecast.
- A5 is framed as regulatory, license, and reexport chokepoint exposure rather than physical freight or port logistics.
- Company-specific supplier, customer, counterparty, bill-of-material, OSAT-routing, and issuer-financial data are not included.
- The public dossier relies on official rule materials, guidance, and agency statements, but it is not an exhaustive legal analysis of the Export Administration Regulations.
- Defense-sector relevance is limited to procurement, compliance, export-control, sanctions, and dependency exposure.

View

Report or Memo

CLX exposure synthesis

HIGH: Material Exposure

China-linked dependencies are material. Mitigation and monitoring should be attached to any sourcing, procurement, or product strategy decision.

Score profile

CLX exposure

73/100

High

Completeness

86%

Profile-weighted

86%

Evidence posture

Tier A refs10

Tier B refs0

Evidence cited10

Flags raised1

Evaluations & Next Steps

Recommendations and warnings from the CLX-1 exposure review.

Strategic recommendations

Map named suppliers, counterparties, and customer exposures to the highest-scoring Semiconductors CLX domains.
Screen relevant suppliers and customers against export-control, sanctions, forced-labor, and restricted-party lists before material commitments.
Build refreshable mitigation plans for the highest-scoring domains, with alternate sourcing, review cadence, and compliance checkpoints.

Critical warnings

This dossier maps China-linked export-control and compliance exposure; it is not legal advice or a market forecast.
A5 is framed as regulatory, license, and reexport chokepoint exposure rather than physical freight or port logistics.
Company-specific supplier, customer, counterparty, bill-of-material, OSAT-routing, and issuer-financial data are not included.
The public dossier relies on official rule materials, guidance, and agency statements, but it is not an exhaustive legal analysis of the Export Administration Regulations.
Defense-sector relevance is limited to procurement, compliance, export-control, sanctions, and dependency exposure.

Domain breakdown

Eight CLX domains with readable 0-100 exposure indicators.

Jump to domain

A1 · Policy & Regulatory A2 · Geopolitics & Export Controls A3 · Supply Concentration A4 · Entity & Compliance A5 · Logistics & Chokepoints A6 · Technology & IP Dependency A7 · Industrial Capacity A8 · Financial & Reputation Exposure

Policy & Regulatory

BIS licensing changes, PRC-directed controls, and tariff policy create live regulatory exposure for advanced-computing semiconductor trade involving China-linked nodes, customers, and production pathways.

CLX 69/100 - High

Missingness: Policy posture is well evidenced publicly, but company-specific license interpretation and transaction-level legal analysis remain out of scope.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Policy & Regulatory exposure score	69 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://www.bis.gov/89-fr-96790-foreign-produced-direct-product-rule-additions-refinements-controls-advanced-computing-semiconductor https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china https://www.commerce.gov/news/fact-sheets/2024/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-protect-american-workers-and	Partial

Policy & Regulatory exposure score

Partial

Value: 69 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Geopolitics & Export Controls

Advanced-computing IC, HBM, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, software, Entity List, and license-review controls create direct China-linked exposure for customers, suppliers, and technology transfer paths.

CLX 86/100 - Critical

Missingness: Control posture is clear at a public level, but customer-specific export classifications and licensing outcomes are not included.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Geopolitics & Export Controls exposure score	86 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://www.bis.gov/89-fr-96790-foreign-produced-direct-product-rule-additions-refinements-controls-advanced-computing-semiconductor https://media.bis.gov/media/documents/ai-counter-diversion-industry-guidance-may-13-2025.pdf https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-closes-export-controls-loophole-foreign-owned-semiconductor-fabs-china	Partial

Geopolitics & Export Controls exposure score

Partial

Value: 86 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Supply Concentration

PRC-origin legacy-chip prevalence, advanced-node restrictions, equipment and materials dependencies, and limited supplier visibility create concentration risk even in a narrow export-control case.

CLX 72/100 - High

Missingness: No supplier-level bill-of-material, OSAT-routing map, or company-specific node allocation data is included, so concentration remains sector-level rather than transaction-specific.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Supply Concentration exposure score	72 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +2 more sources https://www.commerce.gov/news/fact-sheets/2024/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-protect-american-workers-and https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025	Partial

Supply Concentration exposure score

Partial

Value: 72 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Entity & Compliance

Entity List actions, diversion guidance, foundry due-diligence expectations, and case-by-case license review increase the compliance burden for firms with China-linked semiconductor relationships.

CLX 81/100 - Critical

Missingness: No customer-provided counterparty set is included, so entity exposure remains sector-level rather than transaction-specific.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Entity & Compliance exposure score	81 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://media.bis.gov/media/documents/ai-counter-diversion-industry-guidance-may-13-2025.pdf https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-closes-export-controls-loophole-foreign-owned-semiconductor-fabs-china	Partial

Entity & Compliance exposure score

Partial

Value: 81 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Logistics & Chokepoints

In this dossier, chokepoints are regulatory rather than freight-based: foundry due diligence, license review, reexport rules, software-key restrictions, and jurisdictional controls can interrupt or slow China-linked semiconductor flows.

CLX 61/100 - High

Missingness: No route-level freight, port, Taiwan Strait, or packaging-test transport data is included, so this score reflects regulatory and licensing chokepoints only.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Logistics & Chokepoints exposure score	61 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://media.bis.gov/media/documents/ai-counter-diversion-industry-guidance-may-13-2025.pdf https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-closes-export-controls-loophole-foreign-owned-semiconductor-fabs-china	Partial

Logistics & Chokepoints exposure score

Partial

Value: 61 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Technology & IP Dependency

Controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment, software tooling, HBM, and advanced-node production pathways make technical dependency and know-how constraints central to China-linked semiconductor exposure.

CLX 83/100 - Critical

Missingness: Patent, license, and proprietary process exposure remains generalized because no company-specific technical stack is included.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Technology & IP Dependency exposure score	83 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://media.bis.gov/media/documents/ai-counter-diversion-industry-guidance-may-13-2025.pdf https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/cswp/46/analyzing-collusion-threats-in-the-semiconductor-s/final https://www.nist.gov/publications/summary-report-chips-rd-semiconductor-supply-chain-trust-and-assurance-data-standards	Partial

Technology & IP Dependency exposure score

Partial

Value: 83 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Industrial Capacity

Legacy-chip capacity expansion, mature-node PRC-origin penetration, and control-driven constraints on advanced-node equipment and technology create industrial-capacity exposure across fabs and upgrade pathways.

CLX 71/100 - High

Missingness: No complete fab-capacity table by node, geography, company, and utilization is included, so industrial-capacity exposure remains directional rather than fully quantified.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Industrial Capacity exposure score	71 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://www.bis.gov/press-release/bis-publishes-assessment-use-mature-node-chips https://www.commerce.gov/news/fact-sheets/2024/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-protect-american-workers-and https://www.nist.gov/publications/summary-report-chips-rd-semiconductor-supply-chain-trust-and-assurance-data-standards	Partial

Industrial Capacity exposure score

Partial

Value: 71 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Financial & Reputation Exposure

Tariff exposure, customer-access limits, licensing delays, pricing pressure from overcapacity, and compliance failures can create material cost, margin, and reputation effects for China-linked semiconductor programs.

CLX 62/100 - High

Missingness: No issuer-specific revenue, margin, customer concentration, or enforcement penalty model is included, so financial and reputation exposure remains sector-level and conservative.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Financial & Reputation Exposure exposure score	62 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +2 more sources https://www.bis.gov/press-release/bis-publishes-assessment-use-mature-node-chips https://www.commerce.gov/news/fact-sheets/2024/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-protect-american-workers-and	Partial