01 Dossier brief

China critical minerals refining and processing exposure

Critical China-linked exposure score (81/100).

Exposure to China-linked critical minerals refining, processing, export-control leverage, intermediate-material chokepoints, and compliance dependencies across rare earths, graphite, gallium, germanium, tungsten, and related inputs.

CLX 81/100CriticalConfidence 66%

CLX score

81/100

Confidence

66%

Completeness

84%

Evidence cited

Quick facts

Country

China

Sector

Critical minerals

CLX band

Critical

Profile

CLX-CRITICAL-MINERALS-REFINING-1.0

Key source dates

2023-07-03 · 2023-10-20 · 2024-10-15 · 2025 · 2025-02-04 · 2025-02-06 · 2025-04-09 · 2026-02-06

How to read CLX

Read the score as a China-linked exposure signal, then use domains, confidence, source dates, and evidence to decide where follow-up diligence belongs.

Boundaries

- This dossier maps China-linked refining, processing, export-control, and dependency exposure; it is not a commodity-price forecast or legal advice.
- The public case is focused on refining and processing concentration rather than mine-by-mine supply ownership.
- Company-specific supplier, routing, counterparty, inventory, and issuer-financial data are not included.
- A4 is framed as export-license and controlled-item compliance burden, not as a sanctions-list dossier.
- A6 is intentionally conservative because public evidence is stronger on process concentration and industrial leverage than on proprietary IP lock-in.
- Defense relevance is limited to procurement, compliance, export-control, and dependency exposure.

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Report or Memo

CLX exposure synthesis

CRITICAL: High China-linked Exposure

Treat this supply-chain position as a board-level exposure item. Require supplier screening, alternate sourcing, and compliance review before material commitments.

Score profile

CLX exposure

81/100

Critical

Completeness

84%

Profile-weighted

84%

Evidence posture

Tier A refs10

Tier B refs0

Evidence cited10

Flags raised1

Evaluations & Next Steps

Recommendations and warnings from the CLX-1 exposure review.

Strategic recommendations

Map named suppliers, counterparties, and customer exposures to the highest-scoring Critical minerals CLX domains.
Screen relevant suppliers and customers against export-control, sanctions, forced-labor, and restricted-party lists before material commitments.
Build refreshable mitigation plans for the highest-scoring domains, with alternate sourcing, review cadence, and compliance checkpoints.

Critical warnings

This dossier maps China-linked refining, processing, export-control, and dependency exposure; it is not a commodity-price forecast or legal advice.
The public case is focused on refining and processing concentration rather than mine-by-mine supply ownership.
Company-specific supplier, routing, counterparty, inventory, and issuer-financial data are not included.
A4 is framed as export-license and controlled-item compliance burden, not as a sanctions-list dossier.
A6 is intentionally conservative because public evidence is stronger on process concentration and industrial leverage than on proprietary IP lock-in.
Defense relevance is limited to procurement, compliance, export-control, and dependency exposure.

Domain breakdown

Eight CLX domains with readable 0-100 exposure indicators.

Jump to domain

A1 · Policy & Regulatory A2 · Geopolitics & Export Controls A3 · Supply Concentration A4 · Entity & Compliance A5 · Logistics & Chokepoints A6 · Technology & IP Dependency A7 · Industrial Capacity A8 · Financial & Reputation Exposure

Policy & Regulatory

China has used dated export-control announcements and licensing posture across several critical mineral categories, making policy and regulatory exposure a live operating consideration for refining- and processing-dependent firms.

CLX 78/100 - High

Missingness: Policy posture is publicly visible, but transaction-level licensing outcomes and customs implementation data are not included.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Policy & Regulatory exposure score	78 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +4 more sources https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/News/PressConference/art/2025/art_d10a6987a12f474c9d1b318cb2a141b3.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_e623090907fc4e1092f0a4db72f57b95.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zwgk/zcfb/202307/20230703419345.shtml	Partial

Policy & Regulatory exposure score

Partial

Value: 78 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Geopolitics & Export Controls

China-linked export controls on rare earth related items, graphite, gallium, germanium, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium show that critical-mineral restriction risk is active rather than hypothetical.

CLX 84/100 - Critical

Missingness: The dossier does not model destination-by-destination licensing outcomes or the full downstream effect for every covered material.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Geopolitics & Export Controls exposure score	84 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +4 more sources https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/News/PressConference/art/2025/art_d10a6987a12f474c9d1b318cb2a141b3.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_e623090907fc4e1092f0a4db72f57b95.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zwgk/zcfb/202307/20230703419345.shtml	Partial

Geopolitics & Export Controls exposure score

Partial

Value: 84 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Supply Concentration

IEA and USGS evidence show that refined critical mineral supply remains highly concentrated, leaving downstream industries exposed when China-linked refining and processing capacity is disrupted or restricted.

CLX 90/100 - Critical

Missingness: No company-specific supplier allocation or bill-of-material mapping is included, so concentration remains sector-level.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Supply Concentration exposure score	90 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://www.iea.org/reports/rare-earth-elements-2025 https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026 https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2025/1047/ofr20251047.pdf	Partial

Supply Concentration exposure score

Partial

Value: 90 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Entity & Compliance

Export-control coverage and license handling create a meaningful compliance burden for firms moving covered mineral items or dependent intermediates, even though this is not primarily a restricted-party dossier.

CLX 61/100 - High

Missingness: No transaction-level exporter, importer, or counterparty screening dataset is included.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Entity & Compliance exposure score	61 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +3 more sources https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_e623090907fc4e1092f0a4db72f57b95.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zwgk/zcfb/202307/20230703419345.shtml	Partial

Entity & Compliance exposure score

Partial

Value: 61 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Logistics & Chokepoints

The main chokepoints in this dossier are refining, intermediate processing, and export-license bottlenecks: when covered material categories tighten, downstream users can face immediate sourcing friction even without a freight disruption.

CLX 82/100 - Critical

Missingness: No route-level freight, inventory-buffer, or port-throughput analysis is included, so this score emphasizes processing and regulatory chokepoints.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Logistics & Chokepoints exposure score	82 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +5 more sources https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20241057 https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/News/PressConference/art/2025/art_d10a6987a12f474c9d1b318cb2a141b3.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_e623090907fc4e1092f0a4db72f57b95.html https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zwgk/zcfb/202307/20230703419345.shtml	Partial

Logistics & Chokepoints exposure score

Partial

Value: 82 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Technology & IP Dependency

Processing know-how, separation capability, and specialized intermediate-material production create technology dependency, but the public evidence is stronger on capacity concentration than on proprietary IP lock-in.

CLX 55/100 - Elevated

Missingness: No company-specific process, licensing, patent, or proprietary-technology exposure dataset is included.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Technology & IP Dependency exposure score	55 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +1 more sources https://www.iea.org/reports/rare-earth-elements-2025	Partial

Technology & IP Dependency exposure score

Partial

Value: 55 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Industrial Capacity

China-linked refining and processing scale remains a central form of industrial leverage across multiple critical mineral categories, making capacity concentration itself a major exposure vector.

CLX 88/100 - Critical

Missingness: The dossier does not include plant-level utilization or a complete asset-by-asset refining table.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Industrial Capacity exposure score	88 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +2 more sources https://www.iea.org/reports/rare-earth-elements-2025 https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026	Partial

Industrial Capacity exposure score

Partial

Value: 88 0-100 exposure score

Year: 2026

Source: Clarum CLX-1 · Open

Financial & Reputation Exposure

Official disruption and competitiveness evidence shows that mineral supply shocks can raise downstream costs, weaken manufacturing competitiveness, and create planning and reputation pressure when firms are visibly unprepared for concentration risk.

CLX 70/100 - High

Missingness: No issuer-specific revenue, margin, customer concentration, or enforcement-penalty model is included.

0/1 complete · 85%1 indicators

Indicator	Value	Year	Source	Status
Financial & Reputation Exposure exposure score	70 0-100 exposure score	2026	Clarum CLX-1Open +2 more sources https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2025/1047/ofr20251047.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20241057	Partial